High transaction volume on a blockchain isn’t just a sign that people are using it.

Instead, it can reveal potential price dynamics. The logic is simple. More transactions generate more fees and when those fees get burned, the circulating supply drops. Traders call this a supply squeeze, and it can sometimes set the stage for upward price action.

This week, Ripple’s XRP Ledger [XRPL] hit a milestone of 3 million daily transactions, and the market reacted quickly. Analysts are pointing to Ripple’s strategic partnerships as a key factor driving this surge, suggesting that a hike in on-chain usage could translate into bullish pressure on XRP.

One analyst is adding to the buzz, pointing to XRP’s oversold RSI at press time as a sign that a potential bottom could be forming. For context, the RSI last hit similar levels in December 2022 during the bear market. Soon after, XRP rallied by nearly 60% until the end of Q1 2023.

Naturally, a key question arises – With XRPL hitting its transaction milestone and technicals looking oversold, is XRP’s 25% correction so far this year actually a textbook case of “undervaluation?” Especially with the market underestimating the impact of the supply squeeze on its long-term price dynamics?

Or is the “hype” around Ripple’s recent partnerships running ahead of the fundamentals, potentially putting a 2022-style reversal at risk?

Market participants wake up to XRPL’s DeFi shortcomings

Ripple’s latest partnerships are pushing to make XRPL a DeFi settlement hub.

In simple terms, by linking with traditional banks, Ripple is clearly tapping into the payments market and using the XRP Ledger as the bridge between TradFi and DeFi. This setup makes transactions across blockchains seamless, positioning XRP as a key tool for moving money efficiently.

Consequently, stablecoins play a big role here, providing the liquidity needed to fuel these transactions. However, according to DeFiLlama, XRPL’s stablecoin market cap is down nearly 12% this week alone. And, it only makes up about 0.116% of the $320 billion stablecoin market.

Looking at the bigger picture, the market seems to be waking up to these limitations. 

Since stablecoins fuel most XRPL transactions, their slowing momentum could hold back DeFi activity and raises questions about whether Ripple’s partnerships can actually drive XRP’s on-chain growth. This would put the whole supply squeeze narrative under the microscope.

Against this backdrop, XRP’s technical weakness despite Ripple’s initiatives doesn’t necessarily mean it’s undervalued. Instead, the market might be waking up to the harsh reality of XRPL’s declining DeFi momentum, making a 2022-style reversal highly unlikely.

Final Summary

• XRPL’s high transaction volume and strategic partnerships could drive a supply squeeze, but XRP’s 25% correction raises questions too. 
• Weak DeFi activity and slowing stablecoin momentum highlight XRPL’s limitations, putting the bullish narrative and a 2022-style reversal at risk.

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Author: Ritika Gupta