Key Takeaways

Does XRP’s ETF optimism guarantee a sustained rally?

No, XRP’s ETF optimism may provide temporary relief, but weak network growth and negative address divergence limit lasting bullish momentum.

What do recent Open Interest and on-chain metrics suggest about XRP?

Falling Open Interest and subdued on-chain activity indicate cautious traders and insufficient speculative support for a strong, sustainable rally.

Ripple’s[XRP] spot ETF landscape is evolving. 

Franklin Templeton’s filing has been extended into November, while the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF, launched on the 18th of September, recorded $37.7 million in trading volume on its first day, making it one of the largest ETF debuts of the year

However, the Spot Taker CVD (90-day) still shows sellers dominating, suggesting profit-taking and heavy sell pressure remain intact. 

Despite intermittent buyer strength during summer, sellers quickly regained control, leaving momentum tilted against bulls. 

This imbalance highlights the short-term risk facing XRP, where ETF optimism must confront a market struggling to generate decisive buyer inflows and break sustained red pressure.

Network growth and transactions fall short of fueling demand

On-chain signals remain underwhelming, with XRP’s network growth sliding to just 4,849 while transaction counts hover around 617K. Both metrics are near low levels, underscoring muted adoption and weaker user engagement. 

Historically, subdued network activity has reduced XRP’s ability to sustain price rallies, even when broader optimism increases. 

ETF approval may provide temporary relief, but structural growth requires consistent network expansion and higher transaction activity. 

Unless new participants begin contributing meaningfully, the underlying weakness threatens to weigh down bullish momentum despite favorable regulatory catalysts.