In brief
- A new paper argues that BTC-settled prediction markets could beat stablecoin-powered platforms by preserving Bitcoin exposure.
- It explores three liquidity bootstrapping methods and their risk profiles, favoring cross-market making.
- However, the author warns that volatility, hedging costs, and user risk perception remain major hurdles to adoption.
Imagine placing a bet on whether a political candidate wins an election, not in USDC or dollars, but in Bitcoin—and when the bet resolves, you don’t lose your exposure to Bitcoin’s value.
That’s the provocative case made in “Bootstrapping Liquidity in BTC-Denominated Prediction Markets.” The paper suggests that for many users, BTC settlement isn’t just a niche preference—it could actually deliver superior economics.
The author, computer scientist and consultant Fedor Shabashev, begins with a critique of the status quo. Most on-chain prediction markets, like
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Author: Josh Quittner
