In a research note titled “Bitcoin’s Road to $100K – Tear Down This Wall,” Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, provides an analysis of Bitcoin’s recent performance and the factors influencing its trajectory toward the $100,000 milestone.
Bitcoin has not traded below $90,000 for the past week, fueling anticipation that it will soon surpass the $100,000 mark. The BTC price has risen by as much as 50% since November 4, the day before the US election. After reaching new all-time highs of $99,860 on Friday, November 24, BTCUSD retraced by as much as 8% to $91,420.
“In earlier Bitcoin times, this drawdown wouldn’t have raised eyebrows, as sharp corrections were extremely common,” Thorn noted. “These days, however, all eyes are on Bitcoin, including many that have not been in the trenches of Bitcoin volatility for years.”
Thorn emphasized that corrections are a healthy part of market cycles. He remarked that “bull markets climb a ‘wall of worry.’” The period between March 14, 2024, when BTCUSD reached $73,835, and November 6, 2024, saw Bitcoin in a downward range for 237 days. This formed “one of the biggest and longest-to-resolve bull flags” Thorn had ever seen.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s bear markets have been severe, with previous cycles in 2012, 2015-2016, and 2019 seeing BTC trade more than 80% below its prior all-time highs. The March 2020 and late 2022/early 2023 periods saw Bitcoin drop to 75% of its previous highs. However, the recent 8% dip over the last week is relatively minor compared to the volatility observed during the 237-day downward channel between March and November 2024.
Who Is Selling Bitcoin Now?
Analyzing on-chain data, Thorn explored the current selling pressure and supply distribution. The supply held by long-term holders (LTH)—those who have not moved their coins for 155 days or more—has been declining as BTCUSD has risen post-election. This decline is more pronounced than during the profit-taking that capped the run to all-time highs in March. However, Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), a metric indicating the movement of older coins, is not spiking significantly. This suggests that very old coins are not moving on-chain in substantial volumes seen during previous market tops.
“If ‘long-term holder’ supply is
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Author: Jake Simmons
