Bitcoin trades into a policy deadline as prediction markets price a U.S. government shutdown.
Polymarket contracts showed odds peaking between 72% and 82% for a lapse in funding in 2025, up from roughly 35% earlier in the month, reflecting rapid adjustments in crowd forecasts as negotiations narrowed.
Crypto pricing tracked the shift in macro risk, with Bitcoin price falling from about $112,000 to $108,522 during the run-up, then retracing above $112,000 out of the weekend as liquidity rebalanced across venues.
Ethereum slipped toward $3,800 before reclaiming levels near $4,000, and Solana shed more than 5% over the same window. Aggregate crypto market value erased over $170 billion through the week as closing prints reflected de-risking and tight cash management across funds.
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Author: Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright
