The probability of a US government shutdown has climbed to levels not seen in years, with prediction market Kalshi pricing a 73% chance that lawmakers fail to pass a funding bill before the Oct. 1 fiscal deadline.

The sharp increase reflects weeks of gridlock in Congress and President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel budget negotiations with Democratic leaders, which narrowed the path toward compromise.

Federal agencies will lose authority to spend if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement by midnight on Sept. 30. Consequently, nonessential operations would close, echoing the 34-day standoff during Trump’s first term, which furloughed hundreds of thousands of workers.

Considering this, both parties have pointed fingers over the impasse.

Former President Barack Obama argued that “Republicans would rather shut down the government than help millions of Americans afford health care.”

However, the White House countered that Democrats are pushing the nation “to the brink” by jeopardizing funds for veterans, seniors, and law enforcement.

How will the US shutdown affect XRP?

The consequences of a shutdown would extend beyond Washington, particularly for the c

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Author: Oluwapelumi Adejumo