Was it a stroke of luck or an industry-defining triumph?

That’s the question that statisticians and pollsters are left with following Donald Trump’s White House victory, envisioned by traders weighing in through prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. 

Of course, the Crypto Twitter crowd was quick to call it a crystal-ball moment.

“Those ‘prediction market whales’ were more dialed in than the polling experts [that are] paid millions of dollars to predict elections,” Bitcoin evangelist and entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano tweeted Wednesday, addressing the coin-toss outcome envisioned by many in the presidential race.

Predictions over polls

As Election Day came, Kalshi’s platform foresaw a 57% chance that the Republican candidate would win, alongside Trump’s 62% victory odds penciled in by traders on the blockchain-based predictions platform Polymarket. 

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Author: André Beganski

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