“Yes” shares for “Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept. 10?” were trading at 84 cents midday Tuesday in New York, indicating the market sees an 84% chance he will go through with it. The bets are written into a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain: Each share pays out $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that usually trades 1:1 for dollars) if the prediction comes true, and zilch if not.

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Author: Marc Hochstein

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