On Manifold, a self-described “play money” prediction market, “bitcoin” ranks near the bottom of words or phrases likely to be said during Tuesday’s debate, with 12% odds, slightly ahead of “unburdened” (8%) and “coconut” (6%). Bets on this market are paid out in mana, a digital (not crypto) currency. New users get free mana when they sign up and can buy more, but they can’t cash it out; the main incentive to place bets on Manifold is to build a reputation as an accurate forecaster.

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Author: Marc Hochstein

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