Prediction markets were a good place to start. Polymarket and PredictIt allow bettors to wager on who will win the election. Until recently, the two candidates were in a dead heat, but, more recently, Trump’s odds have started to tick higher. So, we took the odds from the last two months from both prediction markets, averaged the two, and then performed a correlation analysis with other asset classes, securities and indices.

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Author: Alex Tapscott