According to new economic data released by the US Labor Department, jobless claims fell 26,000 to 239,000 in the week ending June 24, as cooling labor conditions portend job stability.

The four-week moving average for unemployment benefits remained fairly high at 257,500.

Four-Week Moving Average Neutralizes Volatility

The US Labor Department reports claims weekly to reveal the number of new people applying for unemployment benefits. However, this number can be very volatile. Hence, market participants often see the four-week average as a truer reflection of the US job market.

The moving average for June reflects an uptrend in jobless claims, meaning more people are losing their jobs. June claims rose from 237,500 on June 3 to 247,250 a week later. Last week, the Labor Department reported 256,000 new claims.

Four-Week Moving Average US Jobless claims economic data.
Four-week moving average of US jobless claims | Source: St. Louis Fed

Benefit applications reached a record of 30 million during the COVID-19 pandemic between mid-March and the end of April 2020.

At a forum sponsored by the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that if sustained, cooling labor markets caused by rising interest rates could eventually result in fewer job losses. He also advocated tighter bank supervision to limit systemic risks.

Bank Stocks Surge on Stronger Economic Data

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Author: David Thomas

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