Many expect the United States Securities and Exchange Commission to approve listing shares of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) on exchanges for the first time by Jan. 10. Even if the regulator should move forward with a decision to approve, there are many possibilities to what approval may look like.

Deny, deny, deny

Despite all the positive signs pointing to approval, at the time of publication, there is no absolute guarantee that the SEC will still decide to give the green light to a spot Bitcoin ETF. Several asset managers completed some of the last stages of paperwork in filing Form 19b-4 amendments on Jan. 5 and amended Form S-1 filings on Jan. 8.

Historically, the SEC has never approved a spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded product for U.S. exchanges, and only in 2021 started to allow ETFs with exposure to crypto futures. An October court ruling forced the commission to revisit a spot Bitcoin ETF application from Grayscale Investments, but this would presumably still allow the SEC to deny an investment vehicle for different reasons.

Multiple simultaneous approvals

Many analysts have speculated that should the SEC move forward with at least one spot Bitcoin ETF application, more would likely follow. In this scenario, asset managers including Valkyrie, WisdomTree, BlackRock, VanEck, Invesco and Galaxy, Grayscale, Fidelity, Bitwise and Franklin Templeton could see approval on Jan. 10 as the SEC addresses the deadline for an ETF proposed by ARK Invest and 21Shares.

The firms with applications pending seem to be aware of this potential outcome. BlackRock reportedly plans to acquire $10 million worth of BTC as initial funding for its ETF, and companies seem to have gotten competitive in listing sponsor fees for their respective ETF offerings — e.g., 0.25% from ARK Invest and 0.24% from Bitwise.

Related: ‘Nothing left to decide’ — Former SEC chair says Bitcoin ETF is inevitable

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Author: Turner Wright

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