The excitement around the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded fund) is reaching a fever pitch. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have weighed in, bringing their expertise to the fore.
Balchunas has reduced the likelihood of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) denying the ETF to a mere 5%. Still, SEC Chair Gary Gensler advised investors not to FOMO.
SEC Won’t Deny Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Seyffart elaborated on the possible scenarios if his 90% certainty about the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF does not pan out. These include ARK withdrawing its application with assurances for March or an unexpected move from Gensler leading to a denial. Seyffart also pointed out an extreme situation that includes an intervention from the Biden administration.
Balchunas concurred, emphasizing the slim probability but acknowledging the necessity to consider all possibilities.
Adding to the conversation, Laura Shin, a respected voice in the crypto community, opined that the SEC making everyone “jump through hoops” only to deny Bitcoin ETF approvals at the last minute would damage the agency’s reputation. She suggested that any denial would require an extraordinarily significant reason.
“If they made everyone jump through all these hoops only to kill it at the vote, it would be a TERRIBLE look for the agency. If they managed to come up with a legit reason, it would need to be “asteroid about to hit Earth” level of concern,” Shin said.
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Author: Harsh Notariya
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