In brief
- Bitcoin has dropped 3.77% on average each September since 2013, with eight monthly crashes in 11 years.
- Seasonal pressures—from fund rebalancing to Fed policy jitters—fuel risk-off sentiment that spills over from stocks into crypto.
- This year’s setup adds war, sticky inflation, and Fed uncertainty, making $105K the line in the sand for traders.
Bitcoin is trading sideways as August winds down, and crypto traders are doing what they do every year around this time: preparing for pain.
The phenomenon known as “Red September,” or “The September Effect,” has haunted markets for nearly a century. The S&P 500 has averaged negative returns in September since 1928, making it the index’s only consistently negative month. Bitcoin’s track record is worse—the cryptocurrency has fallen an average of 3.77% each September since 2013, crashing eight times according to data from Coinglass.
“The pattern is predictable: negative social media chatter spikes around August 25, followed by increased Bitcoin deposits to exchanges within 48-72 hours,”
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Author: Jose Antonio Lanz
