Cryptocurrency prediction markets are showing strong odds that TikTok will face a ban in the U.S. by May 2025.
According to the latest information, leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi both show a high probability of the ByteDance-owned app being shut down.
Polymarket’s data shows a 79% likelihood of a TikTok ban, with trading volume reaching $5.6 million. Similarly, Kalshi predicts an 89% probability, with $2.23 million in wagers. Both platforms have seen sharp increases in these probabilities since early January 2025.
The prediction markets operate similarly to stock exchanges, where users can purchase contracts based on real-world outcomes. In this case, traders will receive payouts if TikTok “is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans” before April 30.
The high trading volumes suggest strong market conviction in the likelihood of a ban.
The current situation stems from legislation that takes effect Sunday. However, President Biden has stated that he won’t enforce it during his final day in office. That means the incoming Trump administration will have the authority to extend the ban by 90 days upon taking office Monday.
The potential ban attracted the attention of several individuals, including prominent YouTuber MrBeast expressing interest in acquiring TikTok to prevent its ban.
In a recent tweet, he claimed to have received outreach from multiple billionaires regarding a potential acquisition effort. However, the practicality of such a move remains unclear.
