Think of the term “insider trading,” and what comes to mind? Maybe someone in a suit, whispering about a secret new product or a quarterly earnings report that’s yet to drop. Perhaps there’s a park bench involved, or an envelope, or a lot of whiskey. 

That image is now outdated. The explosion in popularity of prediction betting markets like Polymarket this year has not just changed how people make money online—it’s also revolutionized the pool of who, exactly, has access to information with potentially extraordinary trading value. And that’s precisely how it should be, according to one of the country’s foremost experts on prediction markets, Robin Hanson.

It may seem unfair, but “fairness” isn’t the primary objective—it’s accuracy, he explains. 

“If the point of [prediction] markets is to get accurate information on the prices, then you definitely want to allow insiders to trade, even if that discourages other people from betting because that makes the prices more accurate,” the George Mason University professor told Decrypt in an interview. “And that’s the priority.”

In the world of prediction markets, secrets worth millions of dollars are no longer just for Wall Street executives; they’re now the domain of Go to Source to See Full Article
Author: Sander Lutz