During the dog days of summer, Polymarket’s election betting surged on (correct) speculation that the Democrats would make a “hot swap” of Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate. Trading volume grew and grew through the fall. All along, doubts lingered about whether the platform’s trader base would hold steady after the ballots were cast.

On Election Day, the research arm of gaming and VC giant Animoca put out a report with a bold prediction: there’s nothing for Polymarket to worry about. The crypto-based prediction market, according to the report, had a significant base of non-election bettors to carry it through.

Naturally, there would be smaller numbers – what can be as captivating as a political face-off involving Donald Trump? – but it’d be a far cry from a ghost town. Three-quarters of Polymarket users, Animoca noted, trade contracts unrelated to the election.

A month later, that analysis is looking right.

A key data point to track is the open interest on Polymarket. Open interest, which is the total value of active positions in Polymarket’s prediction markets, ref

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Author: Sam Reynolds