U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in over a billion dollars of net inflows over the past week as Bitcoin price showed strength above $110,000, setting up a clean test of supply and demand if the Federal Reserve cuts rates next week.
Farside Investors shows $741.5 million on the day, with Fidelity’s FBTC at $299.0 million and BlackRock’s IBIT at $211.2 million, while intraday vendor tallies vary slightly due to timing and processing of creations and redemptions.
Bitcoin traded around $114,132 on Sept. 11, following August’s record above $124,000 reported by Reuters.
At current prices, the arithmetic is straightforward. A $757 million net inflow buys about 6,640 BTC, which equates to nearly 15 days of new issuance at the post-halving pace of roughly 450 BTC per day.
The halving last April cut the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC, and with about 144 blocks mined per day, baseline issuance sits near that 450 BTC mark, subject to small fluctuations in block times.
| Net ETF flow (USD) | Implied BTC bought (at $114,000) | Days of issuance absorbed (~450 BTC/day) |
|---|---|---|
| $500,000,000 | ≈4,386 BTC | ≈9.7 days |
| $757,000,000 | ≈6,640 BTC | ≈14.8 days |
| $1,000,000,000 | ≈8,772 BTC | ≈19.5 days |
| $5,000,000,000 (per month) | ≈43,860 BTC | ≈97.5 days |
The set-up for another demand shock hinges on policy. A Reuters poll of economists conducted Sept. 8–11 points to a 25 basis point cut on Sept. 17, and the survey notes markets already fully anticipate that move.
CME’s FedWatch tool shows how fed funds futures embed those odds in real time, with messaging that its probabilities should be attributed to FedWatch. If the Fe
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Author: Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright
