Ethereum price is down about 1.4% over the past 24 hours, extending its broader weakness. At first glance, this looks like a routine pullback inside a consolidation phase. But this decline did not appear randomly. It came right after a warning signal flashed on the daily chart, suggesting the recent recovery may already be losing steam.

What makes this moment unusual is the reaction from traders. Instead of reducing risk, leveraged long positions have surged past $1 billion. This creates a dangerous contradiction. The same conditions that are warning of a deeper drop are also attracting aggressive bullish bets. This disconnect could now decide Ethereum’s next major move.

Bearish Divergence And Supply Cluster Are Now Pointing To The Same Risk

The first warning sign appeared through a hidden bearish divergence on the daily chart. Between January 21 and February 25, the Ethereum price formed a lower high. This means the recent recovery was weaker than the previous rally, confirming the broader downtrend remains intact.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum strength, formed a higher high. This creates a hidden bearish divergence. This pattern usually appears during downtrends and signals that the recovery is only temporary, with the larger decline likely to continue.

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This signal becomes more important because Ethereum is already down about 32% over the past 30 days. That confirms the broader structure remains bearish. Now, on-chain data shows where this pullback could accelerate.

The Ethereum cost basis heatmap reveals a major support cluster between $1,870 and $1,890. Around 1.40 million ETH was accumulated in this range. This level is important because it represents the average buying zone for a large group of holders.

These holders are still in profit at current prices. But if Ethereum falls into this zone while fear increases, many may sell to protect their gains. This could weaken support and allow the pullback to deepen.

This makes the divergence warning more dangerous as a key support lies nearby.

Whale Selling And $1 Billion Long Exposure Create A Dangerous Conflict

At the same time, large holders are starting to show caution.

Ethereum supply held by whales has dropped slightly from 113.41 million ETH on February 25 to 113.39 million ETH now. This is not a large drop, somewhere in the $40 million range, but it confirms that whales are no longer aggressively accumulating.

This matters because whale activity often signals future price direction. When whales stop buying or begin selling, it weakens market confidence. But derivatives traders are reacting in the opposite way.

Binance liquidation data shows cumulative long leverage has crossed $1 billion. Short leverage, in comparison, sits near $382 million. This means long exposure is nearly three times higher. Even more importantly, nearly $697 million of long leverage is concentrated near $1,870. Per the map, the risk starts developing if the ETH price drops under $2,015.

This level aligns almost perfectly with the cost basis cluster starting near $1,870. This creates a high-risk situation.

If Ethereum falls into this zone, holders may begin selling while leveraged long positions are forced to close. These forced liquidations would push the price even lower and accelerate the correction. That risk could be the reason why whales have stepped back, for now.

But despite these risks, traders are still betting on a breakout. The reason becomes clear in Ethereum’s price structure itself.

Ethereum Price Structure Explains Both The $2,600 Hope And The Breakdown Risk

Ethereum’s recent price structure is creating the optimism that derivatives traders are betting on. On the 8-hour chart, Ethereum is forming a cup and handle pattern. This is a bullish structure that often appears before upward breakouts.

The handle is forming now as a consolidation phase, something that the traders might be considering as a lull before the breakout.

The neckline of this pattern is sloping upward. An upward-sloping neckline strengthens breakout expectations, provided the price can break past key resistance levels. The critical ones are now revealed by the technical projections.

If Ethereum breaks above $2,140, the pattern breakout hopes rise. While the neckline will still be at a distance, the hopes of a 17% rally toward $2,600 would surface. This upside potential possibly explains why traders continue opening long positions despite growing warning signs.

But this optimism depends entirely on Ethereum holding its support levels. If Ethereum falls below $1,990, weakness begins increasing, although the pattern still survives.

A drop below $1,890 would become much more serious. This level sits directly at the top of the cost basis cluster between $1,870 and $1,890. Losing this zone would weaken holder confidence and expose Ethereum to a deeper decline.

Below $1,820, the bullish structure would begin failing. If Ethereum falls below $1,790, the cup and handle pattern would be invalidated completely. This would remove the bullish setup and could trigger large-scale long liquidations.

That is why the same price structure attracting $1 billion in bullish bets is also sitting directly above the most dangerous breakdown zone. Recovery is still possible. But Ethereum must break above $2,140 first. Until then, Ethereum remains stuck between breakout hope and breakdown risk.

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Author: Ananda Banerjee