Polymarket contracts price less than a 1% chance that President Donald Trump will resign today, as traders position into a 2 P.M. ET Oval Office announcement reported by multiple outlets citing a White House advisory.
The Oval Office announced the planned appearance, though the topic was not disclosed. According to his schedule, Trump spent Labor Day golfing with no public appearances, and his day ended at 5:39 P.M. ET.
Trading around Trump’s tenure and health has drawn sizable volume. As of early afternoon on Sept. 2, a same-day “resign today” market on Polymarket showed <1% odds with roughly $1 million traded, based on live market boards shared with CryptoSlate.
Broader timeframes price low single-digit probabilities: the year-end contract “Will Trump resign in 2025?” traded near 6%, while “Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?” sat near 7%.
Amid a near-record low approval rate of 44% and a -7.6% net approval, a separate contract resolves on Trump’s p
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Author: Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright
