Prediction markets heat up in September, with Kalshi storming past industry peer and market rival Polymarket.
Kalshi recorded a surge in trading activity, repositioning itself as a US-regulated platform, the frontrunner in the sector.
NFL and Sports Betting Drive Prediction Market Adoption
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According to Dune data, Kalshi’s market share jumped from just 5% at the start of 2025 to over 60% by September.
Weekly trading volumes soared to more than $500 million following the kickoff of the NFL season, rivaling the levels usually seen only during US elections.
Sports markets have proven to be Kalshi’s breakout category. A partnership with Robinhood in March introduced retail-friendly prediction markets around pro and college football, accelerating adoption.
Analysts note that Kalshi’s regulated status in the US has given it an edge in tapping mainstream sports bettors. Meanwhile, the Polymarket prediction platform is making headway in the American market following regulatory purview with the CFTC.
The NFL effect was decisive. By the first week of the season, Kalshi’s weekly volume matched levels typically seen in presidential election years, cementing sports as a powerful new growth driver for prediction markets.
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“Kalshi has done $441 million of volume since the NFL kickoff. NFL week 1 is equal to
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Author: Lockridge Okoth
