Institutions Stay Optimistic, But Bitcoin’s Bull Run May Be Nearing Its Peak

A majority of institutional and non-institutional investors maintain an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin for the next three to six months. This finding comes from a joint report released Monday by Coinbase and the on-chain data platform Glassnode.

The report indicates a “cautiously optimistic stance” for the cryptocurrency market in the fourth quarter of 2025.

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Near-Term Gains, But an End in Sight?

The report identifies several tailwinds supporting a Bitcoin upswing. These include robust global liquidity, a strong macroeconomic background, and favorable regulatory dynamics.

However, the authors temper this optimism by pointing to the need for a cautious market approach. This caution follows the massive $19 billion leverage flush event on October 10.

A key investor focus, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, is expected to see two further rate cuts this year. Coinbase projects that these two cuts could attract approximately $7 trillion currently held in Money Market Funds (MMFs) back into risk-on assets.

Charting Crypto Q4 Navigating Uncertainty. Source: Coinbase

Liquidity Squeeze Ahead

On the liquidity front, the global M2 money supply index, a key measure of worldwide liquidity, showed positive signals at the start of the quarter. However, the situation has since shifted.

The report warns that a liquidity contraction is expected in early November. This is due to the combined effects of the US government shutdown and the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Tightening (QT).

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