Bitcoin’s “four-year law” may be breaking for the first time. Despite record inflows into spot ETFs and swelling corporate treasuries, the market is no longer moving in lockstep with the halving cycle.

Instead, liquidity shocks, sovereign wealth allocations, and derivatives growth are emerging as the new anchors of price discovery. This shift raises a critical question for 2026: can institutions still rely on cycle playbooks, or must they rewrite the rules entirely?

Has the cycle finally snapped?

With these forces now setting the pace, the question is not whether the old cycle still matters but whether it has already been replaced. BeInCrypto spoke with James Check, Co-Founder and on-chain analyst at Checkonchain Analytics and former Lead On-Chain Analyst at Glassnode, to test this thesis.

For years, Bitcoin investors treated the four-year halving cycle as gospel. That rhythm now faces its toughest test. In September 2025, CoinShares tracked $1.9 billion in ETF inflows—nearly half of it into Bitcoin—while Glassnode flagged $108,000–$114,000 as a make-or-break zone. At the same time, CryptoQuant recorded exchange inflows collapsing to historic lows, even as Bitcoin pushed into fresh all-time highs.

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ETF inflows: fresh demand or reshuffling?

September’s ETF inflows highlighted robust demand, but investors need to know whether this is genuinely new capital or simply existing holders rotating from vehicles

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Author: Shota Oba