As markets await the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision on January 29, crypto investors find themselves at a critical juncture. Following the first ever crypto executive order by US President Donald Trump and yesterday’s DeepSeek price crash, macroeconomics are once in the focus.

Crypto Market FOMC Preview

Crypto analyst Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) has identified a consolidation range between $90,682 and $108,388 for Bitcoin. He anticipates limited movement prior to the FOMC meeting, citing three potential scenarios for how the market might respond once the Fed concludes its discussions: “Like I said in my thread yesterday, we’re really just consolidating between this range ($90,682 – $108,388). And I expect nothing material to happen until Wednesday FOMC. And then there are 3 possibilities with only 2 outcomes…FOMC surprise dovish -> break out of range, FOMC neutral -> chop in range for longer, FOMC hawkish -> chop in range for longer”

Crypto market participants often interpret a dovish stance—one that signals or enacts interest rate cuts or an extended pause—as supportive of risk-on assets, including Bitcoin and crypto. A surprise dovish tilt could be the catalyst for breaking the current trading range, according to Byzantine General. A neutral or hawkish outlook, on the other hand, might mean an extended period of sideway price movement.

In their assessment, banking giant ING laid out the broader macroeconomic context that could influence the Fed’s decision and projections for 2025. According to ING: “Federal Reserve set for an extended pause. After 100bp of rate cuts the Fed has signalled it needs evidence of economic weakness and more subdued inflation prints

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Author: Jake Simmons