Multiple prediction markets show a growing belief that the Federal Reserve won’t cut US interest rates next month. Recent FOMC notes led to diminished hopes, but faith in a cut is still the majority position.

Moreover, a few economic signals are sparking fears that these cuts might not improve short-term prospects. This is a very uncertain situation, and it’s difficult to see how crypto could react.

Crypto’s View on Rate Cuts

As President Trump keeps repeatedly pushing Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut US interest rates, the crypto industry is losing its hope that they’ll happen any time soon.

Yesterday, the FOMC released the minutes of its July meeting, and the community anticipated that tariff woes had substantially changed the Fed’s position.

The minutes revealed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.5% in July. However, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman opposed the decision, favoring a 25 basis point cut instead.”

The next opportunity is 27 days away, and prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are both reporting diminished hopes of a September cut. Believers still represent a majority, but it’s becoming quite a slim one.

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Author: Landon Manning

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