• The upcoming Fed meeting could determine ETH’s next move. 
• Amberdata projects ETH could sharply rise if Elon Musk uses it to track U.S. government expenditure. 

Ethereum [ETH] remains in a challenging position despite the overall positive performance during past Q1s. The altcoin has reversed nearly half of its ‘Trump pump’ gains and was down 4% in January. 

However, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, the upcoming Fed rate decision and guidance could set the next trend for ETH. Part of Cowen’s analysis on X read, 

“One risk for #ETH is if the Fed comes out this week and says no QE, maybe that would cause ETH to finally go home on its USD pair, leading the Fed to reverse course in March 2025 causing a quick recovery.”

For context, QE (quantitative easing) is a period of increased money supply and dollar liquidity by the Federate Reserve.

By extension, QE fuels risk-on assets, including crypto. Despite the ongoing interest rate cut since last September, there hasn’t been a pivot to QE yet. 

Ethereum: Will Q1 historical gains repeat?

That said, Q1 has always been the best for ETH performance, with +80% gains on average.

From a monthly perspective, January and March have historically seen substantial gains, with an average of 20% and 22%.