With U.S. voters hitting the polls Tuesday, a flurry of bets in the twilight of the 2024 race pushed Polymarket’s total open interest to a record-breaking $463 million on Election Day.

Representing the total value of positions held on the blockchain-based prediction platform, the measure had jumped 40% over the past week from $329 million, according to a Dune dashboard. Meanwhile, much of the platform’s activity had centered on America’s imminent choice between former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.

Over $249 million was actively riding on the U.S. presidential election’s winner as of Tuesday, rising 50% from $163 million over the past week. However, whether Trump’s 62% odds of victory would prove accurate was an open question, with millions of ballots yet to be cast and tallied.

Letting the free market weigh in on one of the country’s most pressing questions this year, Polymarket and other prediction platforms have exploded in popularity. Though Polymarket launched in 2020, Tuesday could be remembered as one of its most defining moments, as statisticians including Polymarket advisor Nate Silver have called the outcome a coin toss.

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Author: André Beganski