Major support at $0.155 collapsed under heavy selling pressure, yet improving exchange flows and accelerating whale accumulation suggest downside exhaustion may be nearing.
News Background
• DOGE dropped from $0.160 to $0.149, breaking major support at $0.155
• Exchange net inflows turned positive for the first time in months — a historical precursor to relief rallies
• Analysts flag a potential DOGE ETF approval window under Section 8(a) within the next seven days
• Whale accumulation totals 4.72B DOGE ($770M) over two weeks despite falling prices
• Broader crypto market remains in extreme fear, with sentiment at its lowest since April
Crypto markets continue to deteriorate as Bitcoin’s “Death Cross” and risk-off conditions pressure altcoins. However, DOGE’s exchange flow dynamics flipped positive — a structural shift that historically appears near market bottoms. Analyst Ali Martinez notes similar inflection points preceded reversible capitulation phases in prior cycles.
Price Action Summary
Dogecoin plunged 7.42% during the 24-hour session, collapsing from $0.160 to $0.149 in a breakdown that shattered the critical $0.155 support that anchored the previous consolidation range. Volume jumped 18.39% above weekly averages, confirming institutional participation rather than retail panic.
The selloff marked a clean violation of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from the prior bull cycle and drove price directly into the lower boundary of DOGE’s year-long descending triangle. The decline extended through multiple intraday floors before stabilizing near $0.149-$0.151. Oversold conditions emerged as RSI built bullish divergence against fresh price lows, while short-lived MACD death crosses hinted at exhaustion in downward momentum.
Technical Analysis
Dogecoin now sits at a high-stakes intersection of breakdown confirmation versus reversal potential. The collapse below $0.155 completes the descending-triangle resolution, traditionally projecting continuation down toward the $0.145-$0.140 zone. However, counter-signals are building.
Whale accumulation has intensified materially, with high-value wallets absorbing over 4.7B DOGE as price dropped — a sign of strong hands stepping in against weak retail flows. Simultaneously, exchange net inflows have flipped positive for the first time in months, a structural shift that previously preceded tradable bottoms.
Momentum indicators support this divergence: RSI continues to push higher even as price prints lower lows, and MACD’s bearish signals are rapidly fading. This creates a mixed but increasingly interesting setup where the technical breakdown clashes with early reversal signals rooted in on-chain behavior.
DOGE’s price will likely remain compressed between $0.149 support and $0.158 resistance until ETF catalysts or macro sentiment provide a decisive push.
What Traders Should Watch
Traders face a binary setup shaped by both regulatory catalysts and technical inflection:
• Monday’s Section 8(a) DOGE ETF deadline — a surprise approval could trigger immediate repricing
• Reclaim of $0.155 — essential for negating the breakdown and reopening path to $0.162-$0.165
• Failure at $0.150 — exposes fast continuation toward $0.115-$0.085 demand zones
• Exchange flow direction — continued positive net inflows would strengthen reversal thesis
• Macro sentiment — extreme fear across BTC and altcoins may produce sharp relief moves, but also increases breakdown risk
The risk/reward setup becomes highly favorable for directional traders as DOGE approaches the apex of a multi-year structure while ETF catalysts converge with on-chain accumulation dynamics.
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Author: Shaurya Malwa
