Bitcoin price sits around $115,000 as the Federal Reserve meets this week. Policy risk concentrates around Wednesday’s Oct. 29 decision at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Markets price a 25 basis point cut for this meeting with further easing odds into year end, according to the CME FedWatch methodology that maps fed funds futures to meeting-by-meeting probabilities.
The setup ties directly to Bitcoin’s macro channel, where guidance on the front end transmits to 10-year real yields and the dollar, then into ETF demand and derivatives positioning on the tape.
Flows frame the week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs swung from a large outflow on Oct. 16 to a large inflow on Oct. 21, then a modest net gain on Oct. 24.
Concentration remains in the leaders, with cumulative nets since launch at IBIT plus $65.3 billion, FBTC plus $12.6 billion, and GBTC minus $24.6 billion, according to Farside.
Breadth outside the top two issuers has been inconsistent, which makes the policy tone a near term driver of allocation follow-through after the decision window.
| Date | Total US spot BTC ETFs net flow (USD m) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 16 | -531 | Outflow burst |
| Oct. 21 | +477 | Snapback day |
| Oct. 24 | +33 | IBIT +58 |
Positioning is heavy into the event. Options open interest sits near record territory on Deribit, which raises gap risk around headlines and the press conference cadence.
Perpetuals funding across major venues has run modestly positive with high aggregate futures open interest, according to CoinGlass.
That mix can be a catalyst for two-way wicks if the path deviates from pricing. The Oct. 17 risk-off session that saw roughly $147 million in BTC liquidations tracked by CoinGlass illustrates the wipeout potential when positioning is crowded.
