In a story within the decentralized prediction market sphere, a researcher has accused a crypto bettor, operating under the pseudonym ‘Fredi9999’ or simply ‘Fredi,’ of significantly manipulating the odds for former President Donald Trump on the crypto platform Polymarket. Over the past fortnight, Trump’s probability of winning has surged from near parity with Vice President Kamala Harris to a substantial 60.7%, while Harris’s odds have dwindled to 39.3%.

The allegations were brought to light by Domer (@Domahhhh), a pseudonymous political crypto bettor, who detailed his findings in an extensive thread on X. Domer stated: “A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 — the person or entity — who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world. Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive guy! We’ll get back to that.”

Is Crypto Plattform Polymarket Manipulated?

Domer elaborated on the mechanics of the alleged manipulation, highlighting that Fredi has been placing substantial bets exclusively on Trump, reportedly exceeding $25 million. This influx of capital has introduced a premium of approximately 5% to 8% on Trump’s odds, making bets on Trump more expensive while simultaneously reducing the cost of betting on Harris by a similar margin. According to Domer, this strategy disrupts the supply and demand equilibrium on Polymarket, leading to skewed pricing that does not accurately reflect the broader market sentiment.

Further analysis by Domer revealed that Fredi9999 is not confined to a single account. Instead, multiple accounts—PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo—are believed to be controlled by the same entity, collectively holding positions worth around $28 million. The synchronization of large deposits from crypto exchange Kraken, typically in increments of $500,000 or $1 million, into these accounts before deploying funds solely on Trump-related markets suggests a coordinated effort to influence market outcomes.

Supporting this claim, @fozzydiablo, another researcher, identified patterns across the four accounts that

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Author: Jake Simmons