Fresh on-chain data suggests Cardano’s price decline may be masking a much larger shift underway. 

While ADA has spent the last two months trending downward, its largest holders are doing the opposite — quietly accumulating.

Cardano whales accumulate while retail capitulates

Santiment data shows a clear behavioural divide:

• 100,000–100 million ADA wallets: Accumulated +26,770 ADA since 1 November
• Retail wallets [<100 ADA]: Dumped –44,751 ADA in the same period

This dynamic, large holders absorbing supply while smaller traders sell, is historically one of the strongest long-term signals for ADA. It often appears near the exhaustion point of bearish cycles.

ADA price still weak despite accumulation

Despite this bullish accumulation trend, ADA’s price structure remains under pressure. The asset trades near $0.40, still locked in a series of lower highs and lower lows.

The RSI sits near 40, reflecting weak momentum but also suggesting sellers are losing strength. ADA’s chart shows no breakdown in mid-term support levels, but buyers have yet to reclaim control.

For now, price and fundamentals are moving in opposite directions.

Why this divergence matters

Historically, ADA has rallied when:

• Smart money increases holdings,
• Retail becomes fearful, and
• Bitcoin stabilises.

Santiment highlights that major accumulation in ADA tends to matter most after Bitcoin calms following a period of volatility.

With BTC still reacting to macro conditions and post-FOMC uncertainty, Cardano may be in a holding pattern until broader sentiment steadies.

Large holders buying into weakness suggests confidence in ADA’s longer-term trajectory — whether driven by staking yields, anticipated network updates, or valuation resets after a multi-month decline.

Retail behaviour, in contrast, reflects short-term capitulation — often a late-stage development in downtrends.

What comes next for ADA?

If Bitcoin finds stability and market liquidity improves, ADA’s whale accumulation could serve as the early foundation for a trend reversal. Until then, accumulation continues quietly beneath the surface, even as price movement remains muted.

Final Thoughts

• Whale accumulation, paired with retail selling, has historically preceded ADA recoveries, signalling that informed capital may be positioning itself early.
• ADA’s price remains weak, so confirmation requires market stability.

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Author: Adewale Olarinde