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Can Ethereum Outsmart Quantum Apocalypse? Buterin Thinks So

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In a conversation on the Epicenter podcast, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin addressed the looming threat posed by quantum computing—an often-cited existential risk for modern cryptography and blockchain networks. While many in the crypto industry regard quantum attacks as a distant or even speculative concern, Buterin offered a more nuanced and data-driven assessment, rooted in current research and technical forecasting.

Is Ethereum Prepared Against Quantum Computers?

According to Buterin, the community can take meaningful cues from the prediction markets hosted on platforms like Metaculus, which aggregate expert forecasts on emerging technologies. “If you just search Metaculus quantum computing,” he noted, “the median answer that you get for when a quantum computer is powerful enough to break cryptography is somewhere between 2030 and 2035.” This projected timeframe places the emergence of a credible quantum threat well within the lifespan of Ethereum and other blockchain protocols currently in operation.

Buterin was careful, however, to distinguish between hype and reality. “There’s a lot of grift in the quantum space,” he warned. Some organizations claim to have quantum computers, but what they often showcase are quantum adiabatic machines—devices that may be “technically quantum” in structure, but are functionally incapable of executing the kinds of operations necessary to pose a real threat to cryptographic infrastructure. “They basically can’t really do anything that interesting that classical computers can’t do,” he clarified.

The true benchmark for quantum risk, Buterin explained, is not the existence of quantum machines per se, but their demonstrated ability to run specific algorithms that break cryptography. “The question you ask is: What is the biggest number that you’ve factored using Shor’s algorithm?” Buterin emphasized. “As long as

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Author: Jake Simmons

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