BTC price prediction: Is pre-CPI volatility the calm before the storm?

Summary

BTC price is trading around $112k-$113k ahead of the October 24, 2025, CPI report, as traders brace for extreme volatility.
Derivatives posture is highly leveraged, with open interest and implied volatility indicating an impending major move.
ETF inflows totaled over $2.7 billion in early October; however, daily flows remain erratic, indicating institutional hesitancy.
A modest CPI print could reignite risk-on sentiment and push Bitcoin to $125k-$130k, aided by ETF and momentum buying.
A high inflation reading risks triggering liquidations of more than $12 billion, potentially bringing BTC below $108K and hitting the $100K level.
The short-term picture supports range-bound trade ($108k-$118k) until CPI data gives directional guidance.

As the October 24, 2025, release of the U.S. CPI draws near, the cryptocurrency market has entered a phase of nervous anticipation.

The BTC price prediction narrative has become more polarized, with traders debating whether current calmness represents true equilibrium or merely the silence before an explosive move.

The atmosphere now is one of cumulative strain, unlike earlier weeks when momentum and trend seemed to carry themselves. Derivative positioning has grown increasingly extreme, prices have been tightening, and volatility expectations remain suppressed — all of which suggest that a major shift could be imminent.

When inflation data surprises, the question is not whether Bitcoin will move, but rather in which direction it will break. A hawkish surprise could spark aggressive deleveraging across leveraged positions, while a softer CPI print might release a new wave of upward momentum and renewed investor confidence.

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