BTC mining difficulty forecast to rise in Dec, as hashprice sits near record lows

The Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty is projected to increase during the next difficulty adjustment scheduled for December 11, as hashprice, a critical metric that measures expected miner profitability per unit of computing power, sits at record lows.

Bitcoin’s next mining difficulty adjustment is expected to occur at block 927,360 at about 12:09:34 AM UTC, marginally increasing the difficulty from 149.30 trillion to 149.80 trillion, according to CoinWarz.

The most recent adjustment, which occurred on Thursday, decreased the difficulty from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion, resulting in an average blocktime of about 9.97 minutes at the time of this writing, slightly below the 10-minute target.

Bitcoin’s mining difficulty from 2014-2025. Source: CoinWarz

Despite the recent drop in mining difficulty, hashprice is hovering around $38.3 petahashes per second (PH/s) per day, according to Hashrate Index, up from the record low below $35 PH/s reached on November 21.

For context, a hashprice of $40 PH/s is a break-even level for miners and the point where they must consider de-energizing their machines or continuing to operate.

Bitcoin mining hashprice, a critical metric for miner profitability, sits below the $40 mark and is hovering near record lows. Source: Hashrate Index

The mining industry continues to face mounting challenges, including regulatory bans or restrictions, rising energy costs, and geopolitical tensions between the United States and China that could disrupt critical equipment supply chains.

US probes the largest manufacturer of crypto mining hardware, triggering fears of shortages

The United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is investigating mining hardware manufacturer Bitmain, which is based in China, to determine whether its machines can be remotely accessed or used for espionage purposes.

In 2024, US Senator Elizabeth Warren, one of crypto’s most vocal critics, suggested that ASICs could be used for spying on US military bases and sensitive national defense installations.

Bitmain is the leading manufacturer of the application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) used to mine proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrencies. The company commands an 80% market share, according to the University of Cambridge.

Restrictions, tariffs, or sanctions imposed on the company by US officials could trigger supply chain issues for the mining industry, which is heavily reliant on Bitmain.

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