Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have released their latest approval odds for spot altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2025, with XRP receiving the lowest probability.

According to the latest estimates, Litecoin (LTC) leads with a 90% probability of approval, followed by Dogecoin (DOGE) at 75% and Solana (SOL) at 70% — XRP trails the others with a 65% chance of approval.

Balchunas highlighted:

“Keep in mind all of this stuff (except Litecoin which was always high) was <5% prior to election. So these are really good odds relatively speaking, and will likely grow the more we see these go through the typical process.”

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently acknowledged the 19b-4 forms of Litecoin ETF, boosting their approval odds. Balchunas recently stated that LTC products check “all the boxes,” seeing no reason for the SEC to withdraw the filings.

Additionally, the analysts believe Litecoin is likely to be considered a commodity since its a fork of Bitcoin that carries the same proof-of-work consensus algorithm and did not conduct any pre-sales. 

The same goes for DOGE, which the analysts believe will also be considered a commodity, likely for the same reason as LTC and Bitcoin (BTC). Meanwhile, the SEC labeled SOL and XRP as securities in different lawsuits.

This is probably why DOGE ETFs have 5% higher odds of approval than Solana despite the SEC not acknowledging DOGE funds’ 19b-4 forms as of press time.

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Author: Gino Matos

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