Bitcoin price trades near $117,000 after the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, as the 1,065-day post-halving window approaches.

The Fed cut rates by 25bps yesterday, placing Bitcoin’s near-term path at the intersection of policy and a cycle marker Axios says has historically captured a “final high” roughly 1,065 days after a prior cycle low.

The test window runs through late September and early October, then the market will trade into Thanksgiving on flow, dollar, and rate dynamics that can either extend the advance or start the topping process that prior cycles paired with drawdowns of 40 to 60 percent, according to Axios.

Spot ETF demand is the first lever to watch because it turns the cycle into a flow problem. According to CoinShares’ latest weekly fund-flow update, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw renewed net inflows in late August and early September, measured in billions of dollars, while SoSoValue tracked a mid-September multi-session inflow streak with a single-day print of around $260 million on September 15.

Those figures contrast with the post-halving issuance of about 452 Bitcoin per day, calculated as 3.125 Bitcoin per block times roughly 144 blocks per day. When multi-day ETF demand absorbs several thousand Bitcoin per week, the market’s ability to distribute inventory at the highs narrows, and topping processes can lengthen into a plateau rather than a single peak.

Macro conditions set the second lever.

This month, the euro touched a four-year high against the dollar as cut expectations increased, while front-end Treasury yields eased into the meeting.

A softer dollar lowers global financial conditions and often correlates with higher beta across risk assets. At the same time, domestic inflation has cooled from last year’s pace, with August headline CPI at 2.5 percent year over year and core at 3.0 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The policy outcome will shape whether those tailwinds pe

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Author: Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright