Bitcoin and gold have told two different stories so far in October, and neither matched what traders expected.

For most of October, Bitcoin and gold looked like they were living in different markets. Gold climbed steadily, adding about 10% over the last month, while Bitcoin slipped roughly 6%.

That divergence is interesting on its own, but the timing matters even more, because the story people think they saw isn’t the one that actually happened.

The common retelling is that gold dumped while Bitcoin rebounded, a classic “risk-on vs. safe haven” flip. But the data doesn’t line up that way. Gold’s big decline didn’t arrive until Oct. 21 to Oct. 22, when it fell over 5% in 24 hours.

Bitcoin didn’t surge into that weakness and instead dropped about 1.5% in the same window. The day Bitcoin really recovered its weekend losses was the day before, when gold was still rallying.

That sequencing turns the correlation story on its head. Instead of Bitcoin rallying as investors

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Author: Andjela Radmilac