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Bitcoin Retests Realized Price, Will Rally Be Saved?

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin price is now making a retest of its realized price, can this help push the asset’s value back up and restart the rally?

Bitcoin Is Now Retesting Its Realized Price Of About $19,700

As an analyst in a CryptoQuant post pointed out, BTC has to maintain this level if the bullish outlook continues. The “realized price” here refers to a price derived from a Bitcoin capitalization model called the “realized cap.”

Unlike the normal market cap, which puts the value of all the coins in the circulating supply as the same latest BTC price, the realized cap says each coin’s “true” value is the price at which it was last moved.

The main advantage of this cap model is that it puts less weight on coins that have been dormant for a long time (as the price would have been much lower back then).

Many such coins have become permanently inaccessible due to lost wallet seed phrases. However, the market cap still puts the same value on them as any other coin, despite the fact that they can no longer influence the price in any meaningful way. The realized cap helps mitigate this problem.

If the realized cap is divided by the total number of coins in circulation, the “realized price” is obtained. Unlike the normal price (that can be similarly obtained from the market cap), this realized price isn’t a value that applies to each coin.

What the realized price rather signifies is the cost basis of the average holder in the Bitcoin market. That is the price at which the average investor acquired/bought their coins.

Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price over the last few months:

Looks like the price has been approaching the metric in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin price had been under the realized price during the bear market lows, but with the start of the latest rally in January, the asse

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Author: Hououin Kyouma

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