Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $108,700, flat on the day but still down over 6% in the past month and about 5% over the last week. The muted Bitcoin price action reflects broader caution across the market, but under the surface, on-chain signals suggest that a rebound narrative is growing stronger.

Short-term holder capitulation, realized price clusters, and technical levels together point to a market preparing for its next decisive move.

Short-Term Holder SOPR Shows Weak Hands Exiting

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures whether coins moved on-chain were sold at a profit or loss. For short-term holders—who are usually the most reactive—the metric provides a near-real-time gauge of sentiment.

With Bitcoin’s price sliding in recent weeks, the short-term SOPR has dropped to 0.982 (on August 29), its lowest level in months. This means that a large share of short-term holders are selling at a loss, often interpreted as capitulation by weak hands.

Historically, such behavior clears the market of short-term speculators, creating conditions for stronger hands to step in.

A parallel can be seen on April 17, when SOPR touched 0.94, a one-year low. At the time, Bitcoin bottomed at $84,800 before rebounding 31.6% to $111,600 once SOPR flipped back above 1.

The current move exhibits a similar setup, suggesting that this latest capitulation may signal a market bottom.

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