Bitcoin Monthly Realized Volatility Sits Below Cycle Peak Levels – Room For A Breakout?

Bitcoin has been steadily pushing up over the past few days, fueled by positive sentiment following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s optimistic outlook on economic growth. Investors are showing renewed confidence as BTC holds above the $104K mark, consolidating just below its all-time high (ATH) and setting the stage for a potential breakout.

Despite recent volatility, CryptoQuant data shared by Axel Adler highlights an interesting trend in Bitcoin’s price behavior. BTC’s monthly realized volatility currently stands at 11%, significantly lower than previous cycle peaks of 16% and 14%. Historically, volatility has tended to decline before major price movements, suggesting that Bitcoin could be gearing up for its next big move.

As Bitcoin hovers just below ATH, market participants are closely watching key levels to determine whether BTC will break into price discovery or enter a short-term consolidation phase. With strong fundamentals and bullish momentum, analysts believe Bitcoin’s next move could define the market’s trajectory for the coming months. The question now is: will BTC finally push above ATH, or will it take another breather before the next leg up?

Bitcoin Enters Crucial Phase, Poised for Major Gains

Bitcoin is now at a critical juncture, with many analysts predicting massive returns this year as BTC prepares to enter uncharted territory once again. While some argue that Bitcoin is near a cycle top, others believe the real rally is just beginning, with new all-time highs (ATH) and higher price targets on the horizon.

Supporting the bullish case, CryptoQuant data shared by Axel Adler reveals that BTC’s monthly realized volatility currently sits at 11%, lower than previous cycle peaks of 16% and 14%. Historically, volatility tends to decline before major breakouts, making this metric a key indicator of an impending explosive move. In past cycles, volatility dropped to 8% before a moderate rally and even further to 4% ahead of major surges, suggesting that BTC is setting the stage for another leg higher.