Bitcoin has entered a clear consolidation phase after breaking above its all-time highs two weeks ago, and the market is now at a critical juncture. While the rally to new records fueled optimism, the momentum has since slowed, with bulls struggling to hold key support levels. Analysts warn that if buying pressure does not strengthen soon, BTC could correct below the $105,000 mark, a level many are watching as the next decisive test.

According to fresh data from CryptoQuant, the cycle and volatility-adjusted MVRV currently stands at 39%. This metric, which compares Bitcoin’s market value relative to realized value while accounting for volatility, reflects a neutral balance between risk and reward. Historically, readings near this zone suggest the market has cooled from overheated extremes and entered a consolidation period, rather than signaling either full capitulation or euphoria.

This places Bitcoin in a delicate position. On one hand, the lack of extremes provides stability, suggesting the asset is not overextended. On the other hand, it highlights a market that is searching for direction, vulnerable to swings as liquidity shifts. With volatility persisting, the coming weeks could decide whether Bitcoin stabilizes for another leg higher or slips into its first deeper correction of the cycle.

Bitcoin Market Cools As MVRV Signals Neutral Risk

According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s cycle and volatility-adjusted MVRV offers a clear picture of where the market currently stands. On this metric, a reading near 100% has historically aligned with overheated extremes, often signaling euphoric tops. Conversely, a reading closer to 0% tends to correspond with complete capitulation, when investors have largely exited in panic and selling pressure exhausts itself.