Bitcoin looks resilient, but don’t ignore those $20,000 puts

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Ultra-bearish forecasts are getting no love from industry observers, and rightly so, with bitcoin BTC$70,489.49 holding resilient amid global market chaos. Yet options flows hint there may be merit to the bears’ dire warnings.

Bloomberg reiterated its prediction for the largest cryptocurrency to plunge to $10,000 — a level last seen in mid-2020. Industry observers dismissed it as silly.

Yet on Deribit, the biggest crypto options exchange, nearly $800 million in open interest is piled into the $20,000 put, a wager that the price will slide to below that level. It’s the fourth-most popular bearish bet on the platform.

It signals some traders are preparing for a meltdown. That said, not all are outright bets on a price crash, Deribit said.

“The majority of that positioning appears to be short puts rather than directional long hedges, said Sidrah Fariq, Deribit’s global head of retail sales. “Traders often sell very far OTM puts because the probability of hitting those levels is low.”

In the meantime, though, bitcoin is showing uncanny resilience, holding steady around $70,000 even as a renewed oil rally pushed crude benchmarks toward $100 early today and rattled traditional markets. Ether (ETH), XRP, and solana (SOL) are similarly firm, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE token steals the spotlight with gains of around 10% over 24 hours.

Analysts say excess leverage is flushing out of BTC, paving the way for upside.

“From a market structure perspective, this type of consolidation can be constructive because reducing leveraged positioning tends to create a more stable foundation for the next move once a clearer macro catalyst emerges,” Diana Pires, VP of sales at crypto platform sFOX, said in an email.

In traditional markets, oil volatility looks to be spilling over into bonds. The MOVE index, measuring the 30-day expected volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, which underpin global finance, has surged to 76 from under 60 in late February. This could lead to financial tightening worldwide, putting pressure on risk assets. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Crypto
- March 12: Polakdot’s economic upgrade to start rolling out, featuring a DOT supply cap, an emissions cut and unbonding reduction.
- March 12, 1 p.m.: MARA to host an X Spaces session with its CEO, CFO, and Chief Growth & Strategy Officer.
- March 12: BOB mainnet to undergo its Jovian hardfork.
Macro
- March 12, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for week ending March 7 Est. 215K (Prev. 213K)
- March 12, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. balance of trade for January Est. -$66.6B (Prev. -$70.3B)
- March 12, 4:30 p.m.: Fed balance sheet for period ending March 11 (Prev. $6.63T)
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 12: Cango (CANG), post-market, -$0.34

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Governance votes & calls
- Arbitrum DAO is voting to establish an operational directive that automatically consolidates idle and surplus non-ARB funds from DAO initiatives directly into the Arbitrum Treasury Management Company (ATMC) portfolio. Voting ends March 12.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting to implement a delegated voting power (DVP) quorum model, update its constitution, and enable onchain proposal cancellation. Voting ends March 12.
- CoW DAO is voting on a swap affiliate program to reward affiliates who refer new retail traders and traders who reach qualifying volume milestones, with up to 500,000 USDC allocated over a six-month pilot. Voting ends March 12.
- World Liberty Financial DAO is voting to introduce a WLFI governance staking system requiring unlocked token holders to stake (minimum 180-day lock) to participate in governance. Voting ends March 12.
Unlocks
- March 12: Aptos APT$0.9242 to unlock 0.69% of its circulating supply worth $11.21 million
Token Launches
- March 12: ForU AI’s (FORU) token generation event occurs.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

BTC is up 0.12% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $70,400.41. (24hrs: +1.11%)
ETH is unchanged at $2,071.35 (24hrs: +2.21%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.4% at 2,008.02 (24hrs: +1.32%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bps at 2.79%
BTC funding rate is at -0.0048% (-5.2188% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at 99.36
Gold futures are up 0.43% at $5,189.60
Silver futures are up 2.38% at $87.09
Nikkei 225 closed down 1.04% at 54,452.96
Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,716.76
FTSE 100 is down 0.33% at 10,320.02
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.43% at 5,769.83
DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.61% at 47,417.27
S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,775.80
Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 22,716.13
S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.45% at 33,119.80
S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 7,501.64
U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 7 bps at 4.21%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.38% at 6,753.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.35% at 24,896.00
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.48% at 47,221.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 59.23% (-0.08%)
Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02929 (0.2%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,020 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $30.46
Total fees: 2.8 BTC / $196,480
CME Futures Open Interest: 108,220 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
BTC vs gold market cap: 4.67%

Technical Analysis

XRP’s daily chart with Bollinger bands. (TradingView)

The chart shows XRP’s daily price swings in candlestick format with Bollinger bands, which are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day average of price.
The gap between Bollinger bands is now narrowest since early November 2024.
The tighter the bands, the more explosive the eventual breakout. In other words, a big move (volatility) could be brewing in XRP.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $198.63 (+1.07%), –1.28% at $196.08 in pre-market
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.46 (–1.69%), –0.75% at $21.30
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.55 (–0.23%), –1.40% at $8.43
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.81 (+1.16%), –0.74% at $14.70
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.54 (+6.99%), –1.45% at $16.30
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.81 (+1.87%), –1.22% at $9.69
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.91 (–0.18%), +14.48% at $12.49
CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.92 (+4.18%), –2.29% at $38.03
Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $112.81 (–4.47%), +0.30% at $113.15
Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.19 (+1.25%), –1.05% at $36.80

Crypto Treasury Companies