Key Takeaways

What does BCMI at 0.5 mean for Bitcoin?

It shows the market cooling mid-cycle, not collapsing—suggesting valuation equilibrium before the next expansion leg.

Are traders preparing for a rebound?

Yes. Retail added $435 million BTC as whales sold 28K BTC, hinting at faith in recovery momentum near $111K resistance.

Bitcoin [BTC] has failed to close above the $111,000 threshold since the 15th of October, as prices continued to oscillate below that level.

Market data indicated that a potential recovery was still in sight. However, deep selling pressure from long-term holders could weigh on any rebound.

Bitcoin primed for a rally?

The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) from CryptoQuant showed that while Bitcoin’s price weakened, its structural setup remained intact.

For the uninitated, the BCMI aggregates Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), and Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) to capture valuation, profit-taking, and sentiment.

At press time, the BCMI reading stood at 0.5, indicating that Bitcoin was in a neutral zone, also known as the mid-cycle equilibrium.

Historically, a retest of this range (0.45–0.5) has preceded major expansions, where prices climbed as on-chain conditions reset.

That pattern suggests Bitcoin may be in a cooling phase before momentum rebuilds, potentially setting the stage for another push toward the $111,000 level.

However, long-term hol

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Author: Olayiwola Dolapo