Bitcoin (BTC) institutional investors face a test of “conviction” as exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings tumble by $6 billion.

Key points:

• Bitcoin ETF investors now face falling into aggregate loss on their holdings.

• Net ETF holdings drop by over 8% versus all-time highs in a “psychological pivot” point.

• New ETF buyers are on the horizon, a crypto industry executive claims.

BTC price lingers near ETF realized price

New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant Wednesday shows Bitcoin ETF buyers struggling to stay in the market.

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows pass $6 billion since net holdings hit all-time highs of $72.6 billion in October 2025.

With BTC price action seeing its current record of $126,200 around the same time, its subsequent decline has hit institutional appetite especially hard.

Now, ETF investors face a battle to stay above their $86,600 realized price — the aggregate level at which they entered their positions.

“With price sitting on the ETF realized price, the marginal ETF holder is no longer a seller locking in gains, but an investor deciding whether to tolerate drawdowns or exit at breakeven,” CryptoQuant contributor I. Moreno wrote. 

“Historically, this zone acts as a psychological pivot: holding above realized price reinforces conviction and stabilizes flows, while sustained trading below it tends to accelerate redemptions as investors lose their profit buffer.”

Accompanying charts show ETF holdings down 8.4% since October, something that in itself “represents the first significant stress test for this relatively nascent investment cohort since ETF approval.”

Despite this and associated erratic BTC price action, ETF realized price volatility has stabilized over the past six months.

“What stands out is that despite a $6B drawdown in cumulative flows (from ~$72.6B to ~$66.5B), realized price has remained relatively stable and continues to trend higher,” Moreno continued. 

“In other words, ETF investors have already absorbed significant pressure (The sustained outflow pressure suggests distribution from less committed capital, likely late-cycle entrants or traders seeking to lock in remaining profits before deeper losses materialize).”

Bitwise exec: ETF demand set for rebound

The second half of January has not been kind to the ETFs’ fortunes.

Related: Wyckoff analysis points to potential sub-$80K Bitcoin low amid choppy markets

The latest data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors shows net outflows characterizing performance from Jan. 16 onward.

Only Jan. 26 managed net inflows, with these totaling a mere $6.8 million while three ETF products still lost capital.

Regardless, Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, eyed potential future participation as a reason for optimism.

“Major US wirehouses with 10,000s of financial advisors continue to move into Bitcoin ETFs. One of them has just greenlighted TODAY,” he reported on X Wednesday. 

“You are not even remotely bullish enough….” 

Dragosch said that the identity of the entity was “internal intelligence” and could not be revealed.