Key Takeaways 

What are analysts expecting for Bitcoin amid the shutdown? 

Views were mixed, with Options skew leaning bearish and BTC capped at $118K resistance despite spiking to $116K.

Is a Q4 rally still possible for BTC? 

Yes, according to Swissblock, a local bottom could be formed soon. 

Bitcoin [BTC] and the broader crypto market face uncertainty after the U.S. government shutdown kicked off. Lawmakers failed to agree on funding bills, leaving traders to price in prolonged gridlock.

As of press time, the market expected the standoff to extend for 15 days, per the prediction site Polymarket.  But the near-term outlook was mixed, according to analysts. 

Since 2013, BTC has witnessed five shutdowns, but only rallied in three. 

However, gold rallied to a new high, underscoring a short-term market uncertainty as the shutdown began. On the contrary, S&P Futures slipped lower. Which begs the question: will BTC follow gold or U.S. equities? 

BTC short-term outlook

BTC spiked to $116K, at press time, after the shutdown. However, it was uncertain whether it could extend the recovery in the near term.

According to Greg Magadini, Director at Options platform, Amberdata, another dip in BTC was feasible in the next few days.