After Bitcoin’s strong breakout to $74K, the bulls have retreated somewhat and are looking to consolidate. Currently sitting at $71K, the $BTC price looks to have found support, at least for the time being. The probabilities are for more sideways price action until the next major move – perhaps taking place in the coming week.
Reversal to bottom of channel is likely
Source: TradingView
The 4-hour time frame reveals that the $BTC price is back inside the small ascending channel, but well above the month-long descending channel it broke out of earlier in the week. There are some decent horizontal support levels below now at $71K and $70K, and the major support level of $69K is just below that.
It might be expected that the price moves sideways until it meets the underside of the rising channel, where there is a likelihood that there could be a bounce. Although, with the 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily Stochastic RSI indicators still to come down from their overbought positions, the main move may not arrive until next week.
50-day and 100-day SMAs can provide resistance
Source: TradingView
The daily chart reveals the resistances that the $BTC price will have to face if it is to truly break out. Besides the horizontal resistances at $80K and $85K, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is just overhead, while the 100-day SMA is running along the length of the upper trendline of the large descending channel.
If this is to be the turning point for what would historically be a very short bear market, the bulls are going to have to get some real momentum behind them, a major factor that has been severely lacking up to now.
Importance of weekly SMAs
Source: TradingView
The weekly time frame view shows how the $BTC price has collapsed within the boundaries of a large descending channel. Breaking out of this channel will be key to a major rally that could take the price back above $100K.
All three major simple moving averages are illustrated in the chart. Given the high time frame, they are more influential than in lower time frames. For a start, the 200-week SMA normally sets the lower boundary for bear markets. The price can dip through, and hold below for quite some time, but if one looks at the entirety of Bitcoin history it’s comparatively a tiny percentage of time that the price would be below.
In order for the bull market to be in operation once again, the price would need to get above both the 100-week SMA and the 50-week SMA. This seems a tall order from here, but the next bull market wave needs to start at some point.
At the bottom of the chart, the Stochastic RSI indicators are inclining upward nicely. This needs to continue. Also, the current weekly candle must not falter. Too much of a wick to the upside starts to become bearish. That said, we do have an enveloping candle so far this week. A strong weekly close will go a long way towards a continuance of this rally.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Go to Source to See Full Article
Author: Laurie Dunn
