A weekly close below a major trendline has not done the Bitcoin cause any good. The $BTC price did hold the $105,000 horizontal support and has climbed since then. However, the bulls didn’t do enough to get back above the trendline and so could the current price rise just end up being a way for big money to exit the market?
$BTC about to confirm trend break?
Source: TradingView
Perhaps many investors would have thought that the Friday 10 October crash would have put a floor under the $BTC price. However, such a long candle wick to the downside probably needed filling in before the price could rise again, and this turned out to be the case.
In fact, after the initial recovery bounce, the price proceeded to fill in that wick and even ended up making a lower low all the way down at $103,600. The mid-point of the descending channel is what finally held the price, together with the $105,000 horizontal support level.
Since then, the price has risen again, but this time the bulls are faced with the major trendline as resistance and also the top of the descending channel.
So far, the $BTC price has travelled up to nestle against the major trendline which is now resistance. It can also be seen that this coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci for this move – a likely place for a retrace.
If one throws into the mix the fact that the Stochastic RSI indicators are showing an overbought condition, it rather looks like a rejection and a confirmation of the trend break may be about to take place.
Were the bulls able to push on through, they would also need to contend with the descending trendline from the all-time high, and they would have to make a higher high above $116,000 in order to fully get back into the driving seat. As things stand, this is not looking likely.
Mid-channel and 200-day SMA could provide support
Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows positives as well as negatives. While a rejection from the trendline looks likely, the mid-point of the channel could continue to provide support. Also, the 200-day SMA could give its support. There have been three previous periods in this bull market where the $BTC price<
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Author: Laurie Dunn
