Key Takeaways

Is Bitcoin’s Q4 rally just hype or the start of price discovery?

With seasonal tailwinds, spot inflows, and short-term holders back in profit, Bitcoin has the setup for a strong upside push.

What will ultimately decide if BTC hits $200k in Q4?

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) breaking resistance, making it the key gauge of market conviction against altcoins.

Bitcoin [BTC] kicked off Q4 with what looks like a textbook bear trap. 

After closing September with a red candle, shorts piled in, targeting overhead resistance. However, BTC bounced 3% off $112k, triggering a short squeeze that wiped out over $400 million in positions.

The result? BTC ripped past September’s $117k high. But does this signal the start of a price discovery phase, with CryptoQuant eyeing a Q4 target of $200k?

According to AMBCrypto, it all comes down to one factor: FOMO.

BTC shows signs of renewed uptrend as Q4 kicks in

CryptoQuant calling for a nearly 60% Bitcoin rally in Q4 isn’t random.

Looking at the past two 2023–2024 cycles, this quarter has averaged a 50% lift. Consequently, BTC kicking off October by reclaiming $118k (its first reclaim since mid-August) sets a bullish tone for the month.

Furthermore, underwater holders are starting to recover. Bitcoin’s Trader Realized Price (TRP), shown by the purple line at $116k, has flipped below the BTC spot, meaning short-term holders are back “in the money.”

In short, season

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Author: Ritika Gupta