• Bitcoin’s recent pullback was driven more by whale profit-taking than macro panic.
• But with tariff pauses set to expire soon, could Bitcoin’s calm be tested by a fresh wave of macro volatility?

Bitcoin’s [BTC] ability to absorb recent war-driven FUD without losing its $100k footing marks a notable shift in market structure. Just a couple of years ago, this kind of geopolitical shock would’ve triggered a sharp correction.

So what’s really behind the resilience? Is it Bitcoin’s own strength, like tight supply, solid support, and bullish on-chain trends?

Or was the market just ahead of the curve, pricing in a likely ceasefire based on past political playbooks?

That’s the real question heading into Q3. Because while BTC looks steady now, the volatility isn’t gone. Instead, it’s just waiting for its next cue.

Bitcoin reacts to whale pressure, not macro chaos

Skeptics may highlight Bitcoin’s swift drop to $98k on the 22nd of June as evidence that macro volatility was creeping back in. But from a broader perspective, the damage appeared limited.

Compared to the sharp 22% monthly drawdown during the “Liberation Day” collapse, the current 11% pullback looks more like a healthy retest than a structural breakdown.

What drove the softer impact? Simple: The market didn’t buy into the idea of a drawn-out conflict.

One of the biggest tells was oil. Rather than spiking, prices actually dropped nearly 15% to $60/barrel, even as Iran struck U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar. 

In fact,
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Author: Ritika Gupta

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