In the wake of Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements, markets across sectors responded with volatility. Major economies stumbled, growth slowed, and fears of a recession in the United States gained momentum. Crypto, caught in the crosscurrents, mirrored this turbulence. But something has shifted. In the last few days, signs of retreat from the hardline stance have begun to emerge.
With negotiations resuming and trade sentiment improving, the broader market, including crypto, appears to be catching its breath. A rebound has quietly begun, and sentiment is now skewing far more optimistic than it was just a month ago.
Fading Recession Fears Could Reignite Crypto Momentum
At the peak of global trade tensions, recession predictions for the United States were being thrown around with alarming frequency. Back in March, markets reeled after Trump rolled out a barrage of retaliatory tariffs under what he theatrically called “Liberation Day.” The timing could not have been worse.
The Federal Reserve had already been trimming its balance sheet, and early GDP models from the Atlanta Fed pointed to a possible 1.5% contraction. Panic crept into Wall Street. Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month recession forecast to 45%, and on Polymarket, the chance of a 2025 U.S. recession soared to 66%.
The US recession odds are starting to look like a media rug pull. 22% chance.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) June 11, 2025
But as always, markets move faster than politics. The trade narrative has softened. Behind the scenes, negotiations with China have resumed, and financial conditions have started to ease. Analysts coined the term “TACO,” which is short for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” to describe the president’s pattern of hard posturing followed by quiet reversals. That trend seems to be playing out once again. In fact, Goldman recently revised its own recession odds downward to 30%.
More notably, Polymarket data now shows just 22% odds of a U.S. recession in 2025, which is the lowest level since February. That is not just a sentiment shift but rather a signal. As macro anxiety fades, capital is returning to risk-on sectors. And crypto, ever sensitive to shifts in liquidity, has already begun to climb. Investors are not just buying
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Author: Adrian Barkley
